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Outcome of OpenAI's AGI clause decision by March 31, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Clause removed • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
Clause modified • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Official announcements from OpenAI or Microsoft, press releases, or reputable news outlets
Story
OpenAI Seeks Billions from Microsoft by Dropping AGI Clause
Dec 6, 2024, 02:29 PM
OpenAI is in discussions to remove a clause from its corporate structure that currently restricts Microsoft's ($MSFT) access to its most advanced AI models upon achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This strategic shift aims to unlock billions of dollars in future investments from Microsoft, its key investor. The clause, known as the 'AGI clause,' would be removed to allow Microsoft to continue benefiting from OpenAI's technology, potentially altering the dynamics of their partnership. The decision to remove the clause would be determined by OpenAI's board, which currently holds the power to decide when AGI has been achieved.
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Clause removed • 25%
Clause modified • 25%
Clause retained • 25%
No decision announced • 25%
With Microsoft • 25%
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With a non-tech entity • 25%
No major partnership announced • 25%
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Approved by California AG only • 25%
Approved by Delaware AG only • 25%
Not approved by either AG • 25%
Increase by over 20% • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
OpenAI wins case • 25%
Elon Musk wins case • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case unresolved by end of 2025 • 25%
New lawsuit filed against OpenAI • 25%
OpenAI files a new lawsuit • 25%
Settlement reached in existing case • 25%
No major legal action • 25%
Settled out of court • 25%
Court ruling in favor of OpenAI • 25%
Court ruling against OpenAI • 25%
No legal action taken • 25%