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Market
Outcome of North Korea's next satellite launch attempt
5
North Korea•Japan•International Maritime Organization•Yellow Sea•Luzon Island•Japan Coast Guard•Okinawa Prefecture•South Korea•North Korean
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful launch • 33%
Failed launch • 33%
Launch aborted • 33%
Official statements from North Korea, South Korea, and space monitoring agencies
Story
North Korea's Failed Satellite Launch Triggers J-Alert in Okinawa
May 27, 2024, 02:05 PM
North Korea has notified Japan and the International Maritime Organization of its plan to launch a reconnaissance satellite between May 27 and June 4, targeting the Yellow Sea and Luzon Island. The Japan Coast Guard issued navigational warnings, and Japan demanded the cancellation of the launch. On May 27, North Korea fired a projectile, triggering Japan's J-Alert system and prompting residents in Okinawa Prefecture to take shelter. The projectile, initially believed to be a ballistic missile, exploded shortly after launch. South Korea's military confirmed the launch was an attempt to deploy a military spy satellite, which failed due to a malfunction in the rocket's liquid fuel engine. Debris from the failed launch, including multiple fragments, was found in North Korean waters.
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Similar markets
Successful orbit entry • 33%
Failure in launch or trajectory • 33%
Successful launch but fails to enter orbit • 34%
Condemnations and new sanctions • 33%
Formal diplomatic protests without new sanctions • 33%
No significant international reaction • 34%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch but failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Launch delayed • 25%
Successful deployment • 33%
Partial failure • 33%
Full failure • 34%
Further missile tests • 33%
Diplomatic engagement • 33%
No further actions • 34%
No further incidents • 33%
1-2 more incidents • 33%
3 or more incidents • 34%
Increase in missile tests • 33%
Decrease in missile tests • 33%
No change in policy • 34%
Successful splashdown • 33%
Explodes on reentry • 33%
Fails to launch • 34%