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Outcome of next reported UAV incident in Murmansk region by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
UAV shot down • 25%
UAV evades capture • 25%
UAV causes damage • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Rosaviatsia, Russian authorities, and credible news sources
Story
Murmansk, Apatity, Khibiny Airports Resume Operations After UAV Threat
Aug 21, 2024, 03:29 PM
Russian authorities temporarily closed airports in Murmansk, Apatity, and Khibiny, citing a UAV threat in the region. The airspace restrictions were imposed after a Ukrainian drone, reportedly a modified Aeroprakt A-22 ultralight aircraft, was shot down near the Olenya Air Base in Murmansk. This base is strategically significant as it houses aircraft that launch missiles at Ukraine. The drone attack warning, which occurred for the fourth day, led to the evacuation of workers from local enterprises. The Murmansk region, located beyond the Arctic Circle, faced these threats before operations at the airports resumed, according to Rosaviatsia.
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Ukrainian Government involvement • 25%
Ukrainian Separatist Groups involvement • 25%
Russian Dissidents involvement • 25%
Inconclusive/Unresolved • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
1-2 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
5-6 • 25%
7 or more • 25%
Accidental crash • 25%
Deliberate incursion • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Shahed • 25%
Orlan • 25%
Forpost • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Ukraine intercepts >70% of drones • 25%
Russia downs >70% of drones • 25%
Both intercept >70% of drones • 25%
Neither intercept >70% of drones • 25%