Loading...
Market
Outcome of next major legislative initiative by Bayrou's government by June 30, 2025?
2
François Bayrou•National Assembly•La France Insoumise•LFI•Socialist Party•PS•Rassemblement National•RN•Bayrou•Nouveau Front Populaire•NFP•Emmanuel Macron
Resolution / Starting Odds
Passed with majority support • 25%
Passed with minor amendments • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Withdrawn before vote • 25%
Official legislative records or announcements
Story
French PM Bayrou Survives No-Confidence Vote with 131 Votes, PS and RN Abstain After Concessions
Jan 16, 2025, 07:08 AM
French Prime Minister François Bayrou has survived his first no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, with only 131 votes in favor of the censure, far short of the 288 required for its adoption. The motion was initiated by La France Insoumise (LFI), with support from ecologists and communists, but was not backed by the Socialist Party (PS) or the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Bayrou's government, which has been in power for just over a month, faced this challenge amid ongoing negotiations with the PS, which ultimately decided not to support the censure. This decision came after Bayrou made concessions to the PS, including maintaining a tax on high incomes and abandoning plans to increase the waiting period for sick leave for civil servants. Despite the rejection of the motion, tensions within the left-wing alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), have surfaced, with LFI accusing the PS of siding with President Emmanuel Macron.
View original story
Similar markets
Other initiative • 25%
Economic reform • 25%
Social policy reform • 25%
Environmental policy • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic crisis • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Demand further renegotiation • 25%
Pass a no-confidence motion • 25%
Other • 25%
Support the policy • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Passed • 25%
Amended • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other • 25%
Failure to form • 25%
Successful formation • 25%
Partial formation • 25%
Economic policy • 25%
Budget adoption • 25%
Other political issues • 25%
Social unrest • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Environmental policies • 25%
Political stability • 25%
Social policy changes • 25%
Bayrou renounces Article 49.3 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
PS supports government without renouncement • 25%