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Outcome of Israeli-US Coordination on Syria by End of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Assad regime remains stable • 25%
Assad regime collapses • 25%
Increased regional stability • 25%
Increased regional instability • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or US governments and major news reports
Story
Israel Prefers Weakened Assad Regime Amid US Coordination for Potential Collapse of Bashar al-Assad
Nov 30, 2024, 06:45 PM
Israeli intelligence sources indicate that a weakened Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria is preferable for Israel and the broader region, as it may help mitigate the influence of Islamic radicals and Iran. Reports from Israeli Channel 12 highlight close coordination between the Israeli and American militaries in anticipation of a potential collapse of the Assad government. This scenario raises concerns for Israel, particularly regarding the implications for stability in Damascus. Israeli intelligence officials have reportedly advised Prime Minister Netanyahu that the fall of the Assad regime could lead to increased military threats against Israel, emphasizing the need for a balance where Hezbollah is weakened but Assad remains in power.
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Increase military action • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Seek diplomatic solutions • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
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Continued occupation • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
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Peace negotiations • 25%
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International sanctions • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
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Complete Withdrawal • 25%
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Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Withdrawal without conflict • 25%
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Ongoing occupation • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdrawal without conditions • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
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Diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued non-engagement • 25%
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Increased military tensions • 25%
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Airstrikes on arms convoys • 25%
Targeted strikes on Iranian militia bases • 25%
No military action • 25%
Other actions • 25%