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Outcome of first phase of Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal by August 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostages released, ceasefire maintained • 25%
Hostages released, fighting resumed • 25%
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No hostages released, fighting resumed • 25%
News reports from credible sources such as Reuters, BBC, or official government statements
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Biden Administration Proposes New Language for Gaza Hostage-Ceasefire Deal to Release 120 Hostages
Jun 29, 2024, 02:49 AM
The Biden administration has recently presented new language for parts of the proposed hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. This effort aims to bridge the gaps between the parties and reach an agreement. The proposed deal includes a three-phase plan that would lead to the release of the remaining 120 hostages held by Hamas and achieve sustainable calm in Gaza. This new proposal follows Biden's earlier outline of a ceasefire deal in May, which included a hostage exchange. However, Israel's insistence on continuing its fight until Hamas is destroyed could complicate the negotiations. Axios reported this development on Friday.
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Ceasefire and exchange occur • 25%
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