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Outcome of Ahmed al-Sharaa's anti-terrorism pledge by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in terrorist activities • 25%
No change in terrorist activities • 25%
Increase in terrorist activities • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Reports from international security agencies or credible news sources
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U.S. Cancels $10M Rewards for Justice Bounty on HTS Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa After Terror Pledge
Dec 20, 2024, 06:18 PM
The United States has announced that it will no longer pursue the $10 million bounty, previously offered under the Rewards for Justice program, on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf stated that during a meeting in Damascus on Friday, al-Sharaa committed to preventing terrorist groups from operating in Syria and threatening the United States and neighboring countries. As a result of these commitments, the U.S. has decided to cancel the reward previously offered for information leading to his capture.
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Successfully upheld • 25%
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No attacks occur • 33%
Minor incidents reported • 33%
Major conflict erupts • 34%
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