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Market
Outcome of 9/11 Masterminds' Plea Deals by End of 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Plea deals upheld • 25%
Plea deals overturned • 25%
New plea deals negotiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official court records and announcements
Story
Military Court Upholds Plea Deals Sparing 9/11 Masterminds from Death Penalty, Overruling Defense Secretary
Dec 31, 2024, 04:03 PM
A military appeals court has ruled against Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's attempt to revoke plea agreements for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Walid bin Attash, and Mustafa al-Hawsawi, the alleged masterminds behind the September 11, 2001 attacks. The court upheld the plea deals, stating that Austin acted beyond his authority when he rescinded them. The agreements would have the three men plead guilty to war crimes in exchange for being spared the death penalty. This decision reinstates the plea deals and puts them back on track.
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Plea deals are overturned or modified • 25%
All receive life imprisonment • 25%
Some receive life imprisonment, others different sentences • 25%
None receive life imprisonment • 25%
Plea hearings delayed • 25%
Guilty pleas rejected • 25%
Guilty pleas accepted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Military Court • 25%
Department of Defense • 25%
Department of Justice • 25%
Other • 25%
Prosecution • 25%
Department of Defense • 25%
Defense attorneys • 25%
All plead guilty • 25%
Some plead guilty, others not • 25%
Hearing delayed • 25%
None plead guilty • 25%
Plea deals upheld • 25%
No further action • 25%
Plea deals overturned • 25%
Appeal filed • 25%
Leads to more plea deals • 25%
Leads to fewer plea deals • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Sets a new precedent • 25%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Support from multiple countries • 25%
