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Market
Number of aftershocks (≥5.0 magnitude) in Vanuatu by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-2 aftershocks • 25%
3-5 aftershocks • 25%
6-8 aftershocks • 25%
More than 8 aftershocks • 25%
Data from geological agencies such as the US Geological Survey
Story
7.3-Magnitude Earthquake Hits Vanuatu; US Embassy Damaged, Tsunami Warnings Issued
Dec 17, 2024, 03:15 AM
A powerful magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck off the coast of Vanuatu on December 17, 2024, at a depth of 10 km, causing significant damage in the capital city of Port Vila. The earthquake, centered around 30 km west of Port Vila, led to the issuance of tsunami warnings, which were later lifted. Buildings, including those housing the US, French, and New Zealand embassies, sustained considerable damage, with the US Embassy closed until further notice. There are reports of casualties, with bodies seen in the streets following the collapse of bridges and landslides. Internet connectivity across Vanuatu was severely disrupted after the quake. The earthquake was followed by several aftershocks, including a magnitude 5.5 tremor.
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Less than 6.0 • 25%
6.0 to 6.4 • 25%
6.5 to 6.9 • 25%
7.0 or higher • 25%
Less than 5.0 • 25%
5.0 to 5.9 • 25%
6.0 to 6.9 • 25%
7.0 or higher • 25%
Less than $50 million • 25%
$50 million to $100 million • 25%
$100 million to $200 million • 25%
More than $200 million • 25%
0 to 5 • 25%
6 to 10 • 25%
11 to 20 • 25%
More than 20 • 25%
Building Collapse • 25%
Tsunami • 25%
Aftershocks • 25%
Other • 25%
Less than $100 million • 25%
$100 million to $500 million • 25%
$500 million to $1 billion • 25%
More than $1 billion • 25%
Less than 4.0 • 25%
4.0 to 4.9 • 25%
5.0 to 5.9 • 25%
6.0 or higher • 25%