Loading...
Market
New armed conflict involving Ethiopia and Horn Alliance member by mid-2025?
4
Somalia•Eritrea•Egypt•Horn Alliance•Asmara•Ethiopian•Red Sea•Afwerki•Sheikh Mohamud•Addis Ababa•Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam•Ethiopia•Somaliland•Tripartite Alliance•Tigray War
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and official government statements
Story
Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt Form New Horn Alliance in Asmara
Oct 10, 2024, 12:22 PM
Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt have announced a new regional alliance focused on common defense and security. The Horn Alliance, unveiled today in Asmara, is seen as a response to perceived Ethiopian ambitions in the Red Sea region. The leaders of the three countries—Egypt's el-Sisi, Eritrea's Afwerki, and Somalia's Sheikh Mohamud—are motivated by tensions with Addis Ababa, particularly regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Ethiopia's military actions in Somalia. The alliance aims to counter Ethiopia's efforts to establish a naval outpost in Somaliland and seeks a role in a post-ATMIS force in 2025. This development recalls the 2018 Tripartite Alliance, which led to the Tigray War, and raises concerns about potential new armed conflicts on multiple fronts in the region.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased international military support for Somali forces • 25%
Increased international diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change in international involvement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
