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Will UN and Lebanese forces take control of southern Lebanon by January 26, 2025?
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Lebanon•Joseph Aoun•Israel•UN•Antonio Guterres•Beirut•Aoun•Israeli•Guterres•Lebanese army•Hezbollah•Litani River•Blue Line
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official reports or announcements from the Lebanese government or United Nations
Story
Lebanon's President Urges Israeli Withdrawal by January 26, UN Pledges Support
Jan 18, 2025, 10:37 AM
Lebanon's newly elected President Joseph Aoun has reiterated the urgency of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon by January 26, 2025, as stipulated by a ceasefire agreement brokered in November 2024. During a meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Beirut, Aoun emphasized that continued Israeli violations, including military operations and destruction of border villages, contravene Lebanon's sovereignty and the ceasefire terms. Guterres assured Lebanon of the UN's commitment to ensuring a secure and timely Israeli withdrawal. The ceasefire agreement, which took effect on November 27, 2024, requires Israeli forces to withdraw within 60 days of its implementation, while the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces are to assume control of the region. The agreement also mandates Hezbollah to relocate its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River and for Israel to withdraw south of the Blue Line. Despite the ceasefire, reports indicate ongoing Israeli violations, including airstrikes and military operations targeting Hezbollah positions.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other factions gain control • 25%
Hezbollah gains more control • 25%
Israel gains more control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Joint Lebanese Army and UNIFIL • 25%
Other • 25%
Lebanese Army • 25%
UNIFIL • 25%
Monitoring only • 25%
Withdrawn from Khiam • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Active peacekeeping • 25%
