Market
Will Trump impose sanctions on ICC personnel by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Plans Sanctions Against ICC Over Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders, Targeting Over 90% of African Indictments by January 20
Jan 4, 2025, 05:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to its recent arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. These sanctions, which could target individual ICC personnel including judges, are expected to be announced shortly after Trump's inauguration on January 20. The ICC's actions have raised concerns about selective justice, as over 90% of its indictments have historically targeted African leaders. This situation has sparked debates regarding the court's legitimacy and its role as an impartial arbiter in international law.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Widespread condemnation • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
General support • 25%
Minimal reaction • 25%
Legal action against the U.S. • 25%
Condemnation of U.S. actions • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other response • 25%
China imposes sanctions • 25%
No major sanctions imposed • 25%
EU imposes sanctions • 25%
Russia imposes sanctions • 25%
