Market
Will the Social Security Fairness Act advance insolvency by six months or more by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from the Social Security Administration or credible financial analysis organizations
Story
Senate to Vote Next Week on Social Security Fairness Act, Restoring Benefits for Over 2 Million Retirees Amid $25,000 Lifetime Cut Concerns
Dec 12, 2024, 07:58 PM
The U.S. Senate is preparing to vote next week on the Social Security Fairness Act, which aims to restore full Social Security benefits for millions of retirees, particularly government workers. This bipartisan legislation, which has already passed the House, seeks to repeal two provisions that have limited benefits for certain public employees. Proponents argue that over 2 million retirees have faced unjust cuts to their Social Security checks, and the Act is intended to rectify this issue. However, concerns have been raised regarding the financial implications of the bill, with some experts warning that it could lead to a reduction of $25,000 in lifetime benefits for a typical couple retiring in 2033, potentially advancing insolvency by six months and increasing the shortfall by 5%. Senators, including Chuck Schumer and Ben Ray Luján, have expressed support for the legislation, emphasizing its importance in ensuring that public service workers receive the benefits they have earned.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Worsened solvency • 25%
Improved solvency • 25%
Uncertain impact • 25%
No change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderate positive impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Deficit increases moderately • 25%
Deficit decreases • 25%
Deficit increases significantly • 25%
Deficit remains unchanged • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Impact on state budgets • 25%
Other Concerns • 25%
Increased strain on Social Security Trust Funds • 25%
Fairness in benefits distribution • 25%