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Will the SEC drop the lawsuit against Coinbase by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the SEC or court filings
Story
Judge Failla Pauses SEC's Coinbase Lawsuit, Grants Rare Appeal on Crypto Securities Question
Jan 7, 2025, 08:29 PM
On January 7, 2025, U.S. District Judge Katherine Polk Failla granted Coinbase's motion for an interlocutory appeal in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), effectively staying the SEC's lawsuit against the cryptocurrency exchange. Despite the SEC's strenuous objection, the judge acknowledged conflicting rulings on the application of the Howey test to crypto assets and determined that the case raises novel and substantial legal questions requiring appellate review. The interlocutory appeal, a rare legal move, will allow Coinbase to challenge the SEC's assertions that the company is violating federal securities laws by intermediating transactions involving investment contracts, and thus, securities. The case will proceed to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, which will consider whether digital asset transactions in secondary markets are subject to securities laws. This development is regarded as a significant legal victory for Coinbase and could have broad implications for the cryptocurrency industry and other defendants in similar SEC enforcement actions.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Majority are settled • 25%
Coinbase wins majority • 25%
SEC wins majority • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
New rules issued • 25%
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Decision appealed • 25%
Further explanation without new rules • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Explanation provided with no further action • 25%
Explanation leads to new rulemaking • 25%
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Explanation leads to modification of existing rules • 25%
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Investigation ongoing • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Regulation imposed • 25%
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Deny petition with revised explanation • 25%
Approve petition • 25%
Deny petition without significant changes • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%