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Will the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire hold until February 18, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel, Lebanon, or the United States, or credible news sources like Reuters or BBC
Story
Israel and Lebanon Extend U.S.-Monitored Ceasefire to February 18, Begin Prisoner Negotiations
Jan 26, 2025, 10:21 PM
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their U.S.-monitored ceasefire agreement until February 18, 2025, according to a statement from the White House. The ceasefire, originally agreed upon on November 27, aims to provide more time for implementation and avoids renewed fighting. The deadline for Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon has been extended accordingly. Additionally, the governments of Lebanon, Israel, and the United States will begin U.S.-mediated negotiations for the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7, 2023, by Israeli forces. Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed Lebanon's adherence to the extended truce following consultations with President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Extended deadline • 25%
Successful withdrawal • 25%
Ceasefire collapse • 25%
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No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
