Market
Will Russian Oreshnik missiles be deployed in Belarus by December 31, 2025?
3
Russian•Vladimir Putin•Belarusian•Alexander Lukashenko•Minsk•Lukashenko•Russia•Oreshnik•Belarus•Putin•Strategic Missile Forces
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Russian or Belarusian governments, or credible news outlets reporting on the deployment
Story
Russia, Belarus Sign Treaty to Deploy Oreshnik Missiles Including Nuclear Arms by 2025
Dec 6, 2024, 02:37 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees within the Union State during a summit in Minsk on December 6, 2024. The agreement establishes mutual allied obligations to ensure the defense and sovereignty of both nations, including the deployment of all available forces, such as Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Lukashenko requested the deployment of Russia's new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Belarus to "calm some minds," to which Putin agreed. Putin stated that the deployment is possible in the second half of 2025 as production increases, noting that the Oreshnik missiles, which have no analogs in the world and whose power is comparable to nuclear weapons when used in groups, will be integrated into Russia's Strategic Missile Forces and supplied to Belarus in parallel. Minsk will determine the targets for the deployed missiles.
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Similar markets
10 or fewer • 25%
11-15 • 25%
16-20 • 25%
More than 20 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Western Belarus • 25%
Northern Belarus • 25%
Eastern Belarus • 25%
Southern Belarus • 25%