Market
Will Neuralink's Convoy Study achieve robotic arm control by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official Neuralink announcements or scientific publications
Story
Neuralink Implants Third Brain Device, Announces Updates and 2025 Plans at Las Vegas Event
Jan 11, 2025, 07:03 PM
Neuralink, the brain-computer interface company founded by Elon Musk, has successfully implanted its device in a third human patient. Musk announced during an event in Las Vegas, which was streamed on X, that all three implanted devices are functioning well. The company plans to conduct 20 to 30 more implants in 2025. The devices have been updated with additional electrodes and extended battery life. Neuralink is part of a growing field of startups developing brain implants aimed at treating conditions such as paralysis and ALS. The company is currently conducting two FDA-registered studies: the Prime Study, which allows paralyzed patients to control external devices like computers with their thoughts, and the Convoy Study, which explores controlling robotic arms. Neuralink's first patient, Noland Arbaugh, received the implant in 2024 and has used it to perform tasks such as navigating the internet and playing video games.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Blindness treatment • 25%
Other breakthrough • 25%
ALS treatment • 25%
Paralysis treatment • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Enhanced mobility for ALS patients • 25%
New treatment for epilepsy • 25%
Improved communication for paralyzed patients • 25%
Other significant milestone • 25%
Case study on ALS treatment • 25%
No high-profile case study • 25%
Case study on other neurological conditions • 25%
Case study on paralysis treatment • 25%
Successful with no major issues • 25%
Study inconclusive • 25%
Successful with minor issues • 25%
Unsuccessful due to major issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Restoration of hand movement • 25%
Restoration of leg movement • 25%
Improvement in speech • 25%
FDA approval • 25%
Commercial availability • 25%
Partnership with a major tech company • 25%
No major milestone achieved • 25%
Achieves full sensory feedback • 25%
Significant AI integration • 25%
Other • 25%
Enables multi-device control • 25%