Market
Will Nawaf Salam resign as Lebanon's Prime Minister by December 31, 2025?
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Nawaf Salam•International Court of Justice•Lebanese•United Nations•Salam•Middle East•Hezbollah•Najib Mikati•The Hague•Beirut
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official resignation announcement or credible news reports
Story
Nawaf Salam Wins 68 Votes to Become Lebanon's Next Prime Minister, Dealing Setback to Hezbollah
Jan 13, 2025, 01:50 PM
Nawaf Salam, the current President of the International Court of Justice and a former Lebanese ambassador to the United Nations, has secured enough support from Lebanese lawmakers to be designated as the country's next Prime Minister. Salam, who has been involved in the contemporary history of the Middle East as a lecturer, is considered a newcomer to the Lebanese political scene but is known for his reform-minded approach. He has obtained at least 68 votes from parliament members, surpassing the required threshold of 65 votes needed to form a new government. Salam's nomination is seen as a setback for Hezbollah, which had supported the continuation of Najib Mikati as Prime Minister. Following his designation, Salam is expected to leave The Hague tonight and arrive in Beirut tomorrow to begin his new role.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful formation • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Failure to form government • 25%
Partial success with coalition • 25%
Deteriorating relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with regional powers • 25%
Improved relations with the West • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Economic reforms • 25%
Other • 25%
Anti-corruption measures • 25%
Judicial reforms • 25%
Moderate reduction in corruption • 25%
Increase in corruption • 25%
Significant reduction in corruption • 25%
No change in corruption levels • 25%