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Will Moderna complete Phase 3 trial for H5N1 mRNA vaccine by end of September 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderna official announcements, clinical trial registries
Story
U.S. Awards Moderna $590 Million to Accelerate mRNA Vaccine Development for H5N1 Bird Flu, Advancing to Phase 3 Trial
Jan 17, 2025, 10:12 PM
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has awarded Moderna Inc. $590 million to accelerate the development of an mRNA-based vaccine against the H5N1 strain of bird flu. This funding, announced on Friday, is in addition to the $176 million awarded to Moderna in July 2024 for the same purpose. The new investment aims to support late-stage development and licensure of pre-pandemic mRNA-based vaccines, as well as expand clinical studies for up to five additional subtypes of pandemic influenza. The initiative is part of the Biden-Harris Administration's response to emerging disease threats, with HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra emphasizing the importance of staying ahead of unpredictable and dangerous avian influenza variants. Moderna's efforts focus on the H5N1 strain, which has been responsible for 67 human cases and the first human death in Louisiana this month, and is currently circulating among birds and dairy cows in the U.S. The company is preparing to advance the vaccine into a phase 3 trial.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful • 25%
Not Completed • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Partially Successful • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful without FDA approval recommendation • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful with FDA approval recommendation • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Successful with FDA approval • 25%
Successful without FDA approval • 25%
Ongoing • 25%