Market
Will major media outlets correct Gaza casualty figures by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public statements or articles from major international media outlets
Story
Henry Jackson Society Report Claims Gaza Civilian Death Toll Inflated; 17,000 Hamas Fighters and 5,000 Natural Deaths Included
Dec 14, 2024, 11:16 PM
A new report from the Henry Jackson Society, led by Major Andrew Fox, has revealed significant discrepancies in the casualty figures reported by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. The study claims that the number of civilian deaths in Gaza has been inflated to portray Israel as deliberately targeting innocent people. Key findings indicate that men were misclassified as women to exaggerate female fatalities, and adults were listed as children to evoke sympathy. Additionally, the report highlights that around 17,000 of the reported civilian casualties were actually Hamas fighters, while 5,000 deaths attributed to attacks were due to natural causes. The findings suggest that international media outlets have largely relied on these manipulated figures without critical scrutiny, with only 5% of surveyed media citing data from Israeli sources. The report underscores the need for more rigorous verification of casualty statistics in conflict zones.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Communication Disruptions • 25%
Data Collection Methods • 25%
Intentional Underreporting • 25%
Other • 25%
Healthcare infrastructure collapse • 25%
Political interference • 25%
Data collection errors • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Political negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian crisis • 25%
Military actions • 25%
300 or more • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 199 • 25%
200 to 299 • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
No Response • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Support • 25%
No conclusion reached • 25%
Figures significantly inflated • 25%
Figures partially inflated • 25%
Figures confirmed accurate • 25%