Market
Will Iran's GDP increase by 5% in 2025 due to cryptocurrency regulation?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official GDP reports from the Iranian government or international financial institutions
Story
Iran Regulates Crypto, Bans as Payment to Boost Economy, Counter Sanctions
Dec 9, 2024, 04:40 AM
Iran is shifting its stance on cryptocurrencies, moving from imposing restrictions to introducing regulations. The Central Bank of Iran has issued a new directive allowing the operation of cryptocurrencies within the country, but explicitly prohibits their use as a payment tool in place of the rial. Iranian Finance Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati has outlined plans to leverage digital currencies for economic growth, job creation for the youth, and as a means to counter US sanctions. This regulatory pivot aims to align Iran with global financial trends and potentially harness the significant crypto holdings of Iranians, estimated to be between $30 billion and $50 billion, with daily trades of $10 billion, 20% of which occur externally, for economic benefit.
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Moderate Increase (0-2% growth) • 25%
Significant Increase (>2% growth) • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Introduce new regulations • 25%
Reimpose bans • 25%
Further liberalization • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
GDP growth between 1% and 3% • 25%
GDP contraction • 25%
GDP growth between 0% and 1% • 25%
GDP growth above 3% • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%