Market
Will ICC arrest Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
4
International Criminal Court•ICC•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Yoav Gallant•Hamas•Mohammed Deif•Israeli military•Gaza•Gaza conflict•Cyprus•Holland•Slovenia
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official ICC announcements or credible news outlets confirming the arrest
Story
ICC Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and Deif; Israeli Military Warns Soldiers Against Travel Amid 30 Complaints
Dec 4, 2024, 07:34 AM
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, charging them with crimes against humanity. The Israeli military has warned its soldiers and officers who served in Gaza against traveling abroad due to the risk of legal proceedings or arrest related to their involvement in the conflict. The military has also advised the removal of any evidence of military actions from social media. This follows reports of approximately 30 complaints and legal actions filed against Israeli soldiers and officers who participated in the Gaza conflict, with the ICC's decision potentially encouraging further legal actions worldwide. Additionally, eight soldiers were recalled from Cyprus, Holland, and Slovenia to avoid potential investigations or arrests.
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Netanyahu remains free • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Netanyahu arrested • 25%
Warrant withdrawn • 25%
Majority oppose ICC actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses, no clear majority • 25%
Majority support ICC actions • 25%
None arrested • 25%
All arrested • 25%
Some arrested • 25%
Warrants withdrawn • 25%
New warrants issued • 25%
Warrants upheld • 25%
Warrants withdrawn • 25%
No action • 25%
Political status unchanged • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Remains in office • 25%
Resigns • 25%
