Market
Will global displacement figures reach 130 million by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
UNHCR or other official UN reports on displacement figures
Story
UN Seeks $47.4 Billion Aid as "World Is on Fire", Aiming to Help 305 Million People in 2025
Dec 4, 2024, 05:35 AM
The United Nations has appealed for $47.4 billion (€44.6 billion) in humanitarian aid for 2025 to assist an estimated 305 million people in need worldwide. UN officials warn that "the world is on fire," as surging conflicts, climate change, and a glaring disregard for international humanitarian law have led to unprecedented levels of forced displacement, with 123 million people forced to flee their homes. The UN aims to help around 190 million people who are fleeing conflict and battling starvation. Officials express concern over donor fatigue and potential funding cuts from Western nations, including the United States, fearing major cuts as this year's appeal is not even half-funded. The UN refugee agency has secured early funding commitments of $1.5 billion for 2025 but emphasizes the need for increased support to address the escalating crises.
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Less than 15 million • 25%
More than 21 million • 25%
15-18 million • 25%
18-21 million • 25%
Mass return of displaced populations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in displaced populations • 25%
Decrease in displaced populations • 25%
Majority still displaced • 25%
Situation unchanged • 25%
Significant increase in displacement • 25%
Majority resettled • 25%
Decrease in refugee movements • 25%
Moderate increase in refugee movements • 25%
Significant increase in refugee movements • 25%
No significant change in refugee movements • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
100,000 to 150,000 • 25%
More than 150,000 • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
