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Will future studies confirm Gaza death toll exceeded 70,000 by October 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Future studies and reports published in reputable journals or by international organizations
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Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll at 64,260, Suggests Over 70,000 Total Deaths
Jan 10, 2025, 06:38 AM
A new study published in The Lancet journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza due to traumatic injuries from October 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024, was significantly higher than previously reported, with an estimated 64,260 deaths. This figure represents a 41% underreporting compared to the 37,877 deaths recorded by the Palestinian Ministry of Health during the same period. The study, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and other institutions, used the 'capture-recapture' method to estimate the death toll. It found that 59% of the deaths were among women, children, and the elderly. The analysis suggests that by October 2024, the total number of deaths due to violence in Gaza could have exceeded 70,000. The discrepancy in numbers is attributed to the collapse of Gaza's healthcare infrastructure, which has hindered accurate reporting.
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More than 70,000 • 25%
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