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Will Eli Lilly surpass Novo Nordisk in obesity drug market share by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Novo Nordisk Shares Drop 27% After CagriSema's 22.7% Weight Loss Misses Target
Dec 20, 2024, 11:46 AM
Novo Nordisk's shares plummeted by up to 27%, the most significant drop since April 2002, after the company's experimental obesity drug CagriSema failed to meet weight-loss expectations in a pivotal Phase 3 trial. The REDEFINE 1 trial demonstrated that patients receiving CagriSema achieved an average weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, falling short of the anticipated 25% target. The company's market capitalization shrank by over 1,000 billion kroner. The disappointing results have raised concerns about Novo Nordisk's ability to compete in the rapidly growing weight-loss market, particularly against rivals like Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics. Eli Lilly's shares surged, while Viking Therapeutics' shares also rose on the news. Additionally, only 57% of patients in the trial reached the highest dose of CagriSema, prompting questions about the drug's tolerability. The Danish krone declined amid worries about the potential impact on Denmark's economy.
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Novo Nordisk 40-60% • 25%
Eli Lilly > 60% • 25%
Novo Nordisk > 60% • 25%
Eli Lilly 40-60% • 25%
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