Market
Will Congress block Guantanamo Bay migrant detention by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official congressional records and announcements
Story
Trump Signs Order to Prepare Guantanamo Bay for 30,000 Criminal Migrants
Jan 29, 2025, 07:49 PM
President Donald Trump announced that he will sign an executive order today to instruct the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to prepare a 30,000-bed migrant facility at the U.S. military base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Speaking at the signing of the Laken Riley Act, Trump stated that the facility would be used to detain the worst criminal illegal aliens threatening the American people, particularly those from countries that the U.S. does not trust to detain them if deported. He emphasized that Guantanamo Bay, which currently holds only 15 detainees, is a tough place to escape and noted that most people don't even know about its capacity. This move aims to double the current detention capacity and eliminate the scourge of migrant crime in the United States. The use of Guantanamo Bay for detaining migrants was previously enacted under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
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Violation of U.S. constitutional rights • 25%
No significant legal challenge • 25%
Human rights abuses • 25%
Violation of international law • 25%
No significant opposition • 25%
Republican Party • 25%
Democratic Party • 25%
Independent/Third Parties • 25%
Guantanamo Bay closed • 25%
All detainees transferred • 25%
Some detainees transferred, some remain • 25%
No detainees transferred • 25%
