Market
Will Canada hold a referendum on joining the US by end of 2025?
4
Donald Trump•North Carolina•Hurricane Helene•Canada•United States•Canadian•Trump•Justin Trudeau•Trudeau
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official Canadian government announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump Proposes No Tariffs if Canada Becomes 51st State, Promising Tax Cuts and Better Healthcare
Jan 24, 2025, 05:04 PM
President Donald Trump, speaking in North Carolina while surveying Hurricane Helene damage, expressed a desire for Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. He stated, "I would love to see Canada be the 51st state," suggesting that Canadians would benefit from tax cuts and much better healthcare coverage. Trump mentioned that the United States subsidizes Canada and provides for their military, referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "Governor Trudeau." He indicated that if Canada joined the U.S., there would be no tariffs imposed on Canadian goods. "I think the people of Canada would like it if it's explained," Trump added, expressing confidence in Canadian support for the idea.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Majority support merger • 25%
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Majority oppose merger • 25%
No significant polling • 25%