Market
Will BHP make a counteroffer to acquire Rio Tinto or Glencore by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from BHP or major financial news outlets
Story
Rio Tinto and Glencore Discuss Potential Merger, Could Rival BHP in Largest Deal in Mining History
Jan 16, 2025, 09:41 PM
Rio Tinto Group, valued at $103 billion, and Glencore Plc, valued at $55 billion, have engaged in early-stage discussions about combining their businesses, which could potentially result in the largest deal in the history of the mining industry. The talks, if successful, would create a mining giant capable of rivaling the industry leader, BHP Group, which is valued at $126 billion. According to people familiar with the matter, the discussions have been confidential and it remains unclear whether they are ongoing. The potential merger could reshape the global mining landscape, with Rio Tinto gaining access to Glencore's assets, including a stake in the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile, one of the world's richest deposits. Both companies have declined to comment on the talks.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Merger postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Merger abandoned • 25%
Merger completed • 25%
Negative response • 25%
Neutral response • 25%
Mixed response • 25%
Positive response • 25%
Both stocks fall • 25%
Glencore rises, Rio Tinto falls • 25%
Rio Tinto rises, Glencore falls • 25%
Both stocks rise • 25%
Iron Ore • 25%
Lithium • 25%
Copper • 25%
Other • 25%