Japan Meteorological Agency or other official seismic monitoring organizations

Japan Raises Probability of Magnitude 8 to 9 Nankai Trough Megaquake to 80% Within 30 Years

Jan 16, 2025, 03:30 AM

The Japanese government's Earthquake Research Committee has raised the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 megaquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years to approximately 80 percent. This adjustment was announced on January 15, 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 70 to 80 percent. The Nankai Trough, stretching along Japan's Pacific coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to off the coast of Kyushu, is where the Eurasian and Philippine Sea tectonic plates meet. The committee's recalculation is part of an annual update, which takes into account the passage of time since the last major earthquake in the region. The committee noted that there has been no abnormal seismic activity in the potential hypocenter area that would warrant this change, emphasizing that the probability increase is due to the natural progression of time.