Official reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA

OPEC Slashes 2024 Oil Demand Forecast to 1.61 Million BPD, Cites Bearish Q3 Data

Dec 11, 2024, 12:49 PM

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has made its deepest cut yet to its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast, reducing the projection to 1.61 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous estimate of 1.82 million bpd. This adjustment, detailed in OPEC's December monthly oil report, also includes a reduction in the 2025 forecast to 1.45 million bpd from 1.54 million bpd. The downgrade for 2024 takes into account recently received bearish data for the third quarter, reflecting a cautious outlook on oil demand growth. Despite these cuts, OPEC's projections remain above those of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), indicating a divergence in expectations for future oil demand. Additionally, OPEC has raised its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast for 2024 by 0.05 million bpd to 1.28 million bpd, while the 2025 forecast remains unchanged at 1.11 million bpd. OPEC+ crude production rose by 323,000 bpd month-over-month to 40.665 million bpd in November.