Market
Which major tech company will first face penalties for TikTok ban non-compliance in 2025?
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Senate Intelligence Committee•Tom Cotton•Pete Ricketts•TikTok•Amazon•Apple•Google•Microsoft•ByteDance•Communist China
Resolution / Starting Odds
Amazon • 25%
Apple • 25%
Google • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
US government announcements or major news reports on penalties
Story
Tom Cotton and Pete Ricketts Reinforce TikTok Ban, Urge Compliance from Major Tech Firms Amid ByteDance's Grave Threat
Jan 19, 2025, 01:10 PM
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton and Senator Pete Ricketts reaffirmed their stance on TikTok, emphasizing that the recently enacted law leaves no room for extending its effective date. They commended major tech companies, including Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft, for complying with the law by halting operations with ByteDance and TikTok. The senators stated that for TikTok to resume operations, ByteDance must comply with the law's qualified-divestiture requirements, which necessitate severing all ties with Communist China. They warned that any violation of the law could lead to severe financial repercussions for companies involved.
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YouTube • 25%
Other • 25%
Meta (Facebook) • 25%
Snapchat • 25%
Other • 25%
Huawei • 25%
ZTE • 25%
Alibaba • 25%
Keep TikTok available • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Announce plans to remove if no sale • 25%
Remove TikTok from app stores • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Microsoft • 25%
Oracle • 25%
Another tech company • 25%
Remove TikTok • 33%
No decision by deadline • 34%
Keep TikTok • 33%
Fines under $1 billion • 25%
Fines between $1 billion and $5 billion • 25%
Fines over $5 billion • 25%
No fines • 25%
ByteDance • 25%
Second Dinner • 25%
Nuverse • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Intel • 25%
TSMC • 25%
Samsung • 25%
Apple • 25%
Google • 25%
No fines imposed • 25%
Meta • 25%
Policy changes • 25%
No consequence • 25%
Operational restrictions • 25%
Fines • 25%
Oracle • 25%
Apple • 25%
Google • 25%
None • 25%