Market
Which countries will adopt new policies based on COVID-19 origin theories by mid-2025?
2
CIA•Wuhan Institute of Virology•China•John Ratcliffe•Chinese•Biden•Jake Sullivan•Ratcliffe•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
US • 25%
EU • 25%
China • 25%
None • 25%
Policy announcements from major countries like the US, EU, or China
Story
CIA Director Ratcliffe Releases Low Confidence COVID-19 Lab Leak Assessment Initiated Under Biden
Jan 25, 2025, 05:32 PM
The CIA has released a new assessment favoring the theory that COVID-19 originated from a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. Newly appointed CIA Director John Ratcliffe announced that under his leadership, the agency will work to uncover the origins of COVID-19 and address Chinese influence. The reassessment, which began under the Biden administration after National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan ordered a classified review, reflects a shift in the agency's stance after years of stating there was insufficient information to conclude the virus's origin. Officials noted that while there is no new intelligence behind the shift, analysts now favor the lab leak theory with low confidence, believing a research-related origin is more likely than a natural one. This change aligns with Ratcliffe's belief that China poses the primary geopolitical threat to the United States.
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Similar markets
Other • 25%
Natural Origins • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Increased belief in lab origin • 25%
Other sentiments • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased belief in natural origin • 25%
No new initiative • 25%
Only China • 25%
China and select countries • 25%
China and all G20 countries • 25%
Natural Origins • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Other • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
China only • 25%
No new collaborations • 25%
China and multiple countries • 25%
China and US • 25%
Lab leak • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural transmission • 25%
No official stance • 25%
International investigation support • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No further action • 25%
Supports new investigation • 25%
Continues to reject lab leak theory • 25%
Other • 25%
Accepts lab leak theory • 25%
No definitive conclusion • 25%
Confirms lab leak • 25%
Refutes lab leak • 25%
Calls for more research • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural Origins • 25%
Increase in belief of lab-leak theory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in belief of lab-leak theory • 25%
Other shifts in opinion • 25%