Market
Where will Nippon Steel first implement production veto power by December 31, 2025?
2
Joe Biden•Nippon Steel•CFIUS•Biden•Pennsylvania•Indiana•Alabama•Texas•California•Arkansas•United Steelworkers
Resolution / Starting Odds
Pennsylvania • 20%
Indiana • 20%
Alabama • 20%
Other • 40%
Official announcements from Nippon Steel or CFIUS
Story
Biden to Decide on Nippon Steel's $14.9 Billion U.S. Steel Acquisition by Friday, Veto Power Offered
Jan 2, 2025, 11:29 PM
President Joe Biden is set to announce his decision on Nippon Steel's proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel as early as Friday, according to reports citing people familiar with the process. The acquisition has been under review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which recently referred the decision to Biden. Nippon Steel has offered to grant the U.S. government veto power over any potential cuts to U.S. Steel's production capacity as part of its effort to secure approval. The proposal includes a 10-year guarantee not to reduce production at U.S. Steel's mills in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, California, and Arkansas without CFIUS approval. Despite these concessions, the deal faces opposition from the United Steelworkers union and some politicians, with Biden previously expressing a preference for U.S. Steel to remain domestically owned and operated. If Biden blocks the acquisition, U.S. Steel has indicated it may pursue legal action against the administration.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Biden Administration • 25%
Legal System • 25%
Japanese Government • 25%
CFIUS • 25%
Negotiation with U.S. government • 25%
Pursue alternative acquisition • 25%
Abandon acquisition plans • 25%
Legal action against U.S. • 25%
Other strategic actions • 25%
Increase investment in the U.S. • 25%
Seek alternative acquisitions • 25%
Withdraw from U.S. market • 25%
Pursue legal action • 25%
Propose revised terms • 25%
Abandon acquisition plans • 25%
Seek alternative partnerships • 25%
U.S. Courts • 25%
Nippon Steel & U.S. Steel Settlement • 25%
Biden Administration • 25%
CFIUS • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Nippon Steel wins • 25%
U.S. government wins • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Negotiation for Terms • 25%
Abandonment of Deal • 25%
Other • 25%
Legal Challenge • 25%
Pursue new U.S. acquisition • 25%
Focus on Asia-Pacific • 25%
Diversify into new sectors • 25%
Other strategic shift • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
National Security Concerns • 25%
Political Pressure • 25%
Market Conditions • 25%
Economic Considerations • 25%
