Market
What will the outcome of a secret ballot among Democratic senators regarding Biden's candidacy be?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Overwhelming opposition • 33%
Moderate opposition • 33%
Support for Biden • 34%
Leak or official statement confirming the results of the secret ballot
Story
Schumer Urges Biden to End Campaign, Citing 5% Chance Against Trump and Democratic Senators' Opposition
Jan 17, 2025, 01:40 PM
Senator Chuck Schumer of New York played a pivotal role in persuading President Joe Biden to end his campaign for a second term. In a critical 45-minute conversation on July 13, 2024, at Biden's Rehoboth Beach house, Schumer conveyed that a secret ballot among Democratic senators would show overwhelming opposition to Biden's continued candidacy. He informed Biden that his own pollsters estimated only a 5 percent chance of defeating Donald J. Trump. Schumer warned that if Biden ran and lost, leading to losses in the Senate and House, Biden's legacy could be tarnished, labeling him as one of the 'darkest figures' in American history. Schumer urged Biden not to run, a decision Biden made just over a week after their conversation.
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