Market
What will be the target launch year for the first US Mars mission by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
2026 • 25%
2027 • 25%
2028 • 25%
2029 or later • 25%
Official announcements from NASA, SpaceX, or the U.S. government
Story
Trump Vows to Send Astronauts to Mars to Plant U.S. Flag, Pursue 'Manifest Destiny'
Jan 20, 2025, 05:42 PM
President Donald Trump announced plans to send American astronauts to Mars to plant the Stars and Stripes, emphasizing a new commitment to space exploration during his inaugural address. He stated, "We will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars." Trump also declared that "the United States will once again consider itself a growing nation," aiming to "expand our territory" into new frontiers. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, was present and reportedly reacted positively to the announcement.
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2025-2027 • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
2038 or later • 25%
2037 • 25%
2036 • 25%
2035 • 25%
After 2040 • 25%
Before 2030 • 25%
2030-2035 • 25%
2036-2040 • 25%