Market
What will be the Supreme Court's decision on ACA's preventive services mandate by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Uphold mandate • 25%
Strike down mandate • 25%
Modify mandate • 25%
Remand to lower court • 25%
Official ruling published by the U.S. Supreme Court
Story
Supreme Court to Review ACA's No-Cost Coverage for Cancer Screenings, Heart Statins, and HIV Drugs
Jan 10, 2025, 11:26 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to review a challenge to the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) requirement for no-cost coverage of certain preventive care services, including cancer screenings, heart statins, and HIV drugs. The case, Braidwood Management, Inc. et al. v. Xavier Becerra, questions the constitutionality of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's authority to mandate such coverage. The challenge stems from a ruling by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which found that the task force's structure violated the Appointments Clause of the U.S. Constitution because its members are not appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The Supreme Court's decision to hear the case could impact the availability of these preventive services, which are currently covered without cost-sharing under the ACA.
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Uphold ACA coverage as constitutional • 25%
Remand to lower court for further proceedings • 25%
Other • 25%
Strike down ACA coverage as unconstitutional • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Dismiss the case • 25%
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Rule in favor of South Carolina • 25%
Rule in favor of Planned Parenthood • 25%
Dismiss the case • 25%
Rule in favor of Catholic Charities • 25%
Rule in favor of Wisconsin • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Ban overturned • 33%
Ban upheld • 33%
Partial ruling • 34%
Strike down the law • 33%
Remand to lower court • 34%
Uphold the law • 33%