Market
What will be the public reaction to the Coney Island subway incident by end of Q1 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests against immigration policy • 25%
Protests for increased subway security • 25%
No significant public demonstrations • 25%
Other forms of public reaction • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and public records
Story
Guatemalan Migrant, 33, Charged with Murder and Arson for Setting Woman on Fire on Coney Island F Train in NYC on December 22
Dec 24, 2024, 03:00 AM
Sebastian Zapeta, a 33-year-old Guatemalan migrant, has been arrested and charged with murder and arson for allegedly setting a sleeping woman on fire inside a Brooklyn subway train on December 22, 2024. Police reports indicate that Zapeta lit the woman's clothing on fire and watched as she burned to death. Authorities revealed that Zapeta entered the U.S. illegally in 2018, was previously deported, and re-entered the country at an unknown time. Eyewitnesses reportedly observed the incident, and Zapeta was apprehended shortly after. He is currently awaiting arraignment in Brooklyn criminal court, facing charges of first and second-degree murder as well as arson. The victim's identity has not yet been disclosed.
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Public Protests or Demonstrations • 25%
Increased Subway Security Measures • 25%
No Significant Public Reaction • 25%
Other Public Response • 25%
Decreased confidence • 25%
Increased confidence • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased police presence on subways • 25%
Increased public protests for subway safety • 25%
Legislative changes proposed • 25%
No significant public or policy response • 25%
No major public reaction • 25%
Local protests in NYC • 25%
Online campaigns only • 25%
Nationwide protests • 25%
Improved perception • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsened perception • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in ridership • 25%
Decrease in ridership • 25%
Fluctuating ridership • 25%
Improved perception of safety • 25%
Worsened perception of safety • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
No change in perception • 25%
Revised Homelessness Policies • 25%
Other Policy Changes • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Increased Shelter Security • 25%
Increased concern over flight safety • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Minimal public reaction • 25%
Calls for stricter regulations • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Somewhat improved • 25%
No change • 25%
Significantly improved • 25%
Suspect Acquitted • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Suspect Convicted • 25%
Suspect Still Awaiting Trial • 25%
More Positive • 25%
No Change • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
More Negative • 25%