Market
What will be the primary target of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil by Jan 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Crude oil • 25%
Refined products • 25%
Natural gas • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or Treasury, credible news outlets
Story
Biden Mulls Stricter Sanctions on Russian Oil, Shadow Fleet Before Trump's Term
Dec 11, 2024, 10:46 AM
The Biden administration is contemplating imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports and tanker fleets in an effort to tighten pressure on Moscow before Donald Trump takes office. These potential sanctions could affect various types of Russian oil exports and the shadow fleet, with measures similar to those imposed on Iran, targeting buyers of Russian oil. Despite concerns from President Biden about rising fuel prices ahead of the presidential elections, the administration is moving forward with these plans. The Kremlin has responded, suggesting that Biden aims to leave a challenging legacy with these sanctions.
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Only Russian tankers • 25%
Russian tankers and individuals • 25%
Russian tankers and Chinese banks • 25%
All of the above • 25%
Increased tariffs on Russian oil • 25%
Complete ban on Russian oil imports • 25%
No new sanctions imposed • 25%
Sanctions on Russian oil companies • 25%
Banking • 25%
Oil Trading • 25%
Insurance • 25%
Shipping • 25%
All of the above • 25%
Safety of vessels • 25%
Price cap enforcement • 25%
Targeting shadow fleet • 25%
No impact • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
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Significant impact • 25%
India • 25%
European Union • 25%
China • 25%
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