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What will be the outcome of Ukrainian aid to HTS by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
HTS maintains current status • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and governmental statements
Story
Ukraine Aids HTS Rebels in Syria with FPV Drones in Early November
Dec 11, 2024, 09:14 AM
Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly provided support to the Syrian opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, Syria, by sending approximately 20 experienced drone operators and around 150 first-person view (FPV) drones in early November, according to The Washington Post, citing unnamed sources. The move is seen as part of Kyiv's strategy to undermine Russian influence in Syria and was aimed at supporting the rebels' offensive against the Syrian army. While the support was not instrumental in overthrowing the Assad government, it has been noted as an attempt to weaken Russia on other fronts.
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Other • 25%
HTS gains significant ground • 25%
HTS maintains current position • 25%
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Stability achieved • 25%
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Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
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Successful political transition agreement • 25%
HTS remains on terrorist list with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited recognition • 25%
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Formal agreement reached • 25%
HTS removed from terrorist list • 25%
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Formal recognition of HTS • 25%
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Iran withdraws demand • 25%
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Disbanded • 25%
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HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Syrian Army regains control • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%