Market
What will be the outcome of Trudeau's cabinet shuffle by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased stability • 25%
No change • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Canadian government or credible news outlets
Story
Trudeau Faces Calls to Resign as 16 Liberal MPs Demand Departure Amid Freeland's Resignation and Upcoming Cabinet Shuffle
Dec 20, 2024, 11:15 AM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing mounting pressure to resign as the number of Liberal MPs publicly calling for his departure has reached 16, following the abrupt resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Freeland's resignation was attributed to a policy clash with Trudeau, particularly regarding how to respond to incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of imposing significant tariffs on Canadian imports. In response to the escalating crisis, Trudeau is set to conduct a cabinet shuffle, which will include the reassignment of four ministers and the promotion of eight new Liberal MPs. This reshuffle is seen as a critical move to stabilize his government amid growing discontent within his party and the looming challenges posed by the incoming Trump administration.
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5 or more • 25%
3-4 • 25%
None • 25%
1-2 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Trudeau government falls • 25%
Vote delayed • 25%
No vote held • 25%
Trudeau government survives • 25%
Trudeau resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Trudeau remains PM • 25%
Liberal Party leadership change • 25%
Chrystia Freeland • 25%
Pierre Poilievre • 25%
Other • 25%
Mark Carney • 25%
Chrystia Freeland returns • 25%
Anita Anand • 25%
Other • 25%
Bill Morneau • 25%
Other • 25%
Mark Carney • 25%
Melanie Joly • 25%
Bill Morneau • 25%
Motion Passes • 33%
Motion Withdrawn • 34%
Motion Fails • 33%
Mark Carney • 25%
Other • 25%
Melanie Joly • 25%
Chrystia Freeland • 25%
Other • 25%
Pierre Poilievre • 25%
Chrystia Freeland • 25%
Jagmeet Singh • 25%
