Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S. government shutdown situation by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Shutdown occurs • 25%
Continuing Resolution passed • 25%
Short-term funding bill passed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government and major news outlets
Story
38 Republicans Help Defeat Trump-Backed CR as Shutdown Looms
Dec 20, 2024, 12:06 AM
The U.S. House of Representatives has failed to pass a Trump-backed Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government and suspend the debt ceiling, increasing the likelihood of a government shutdown at midnight. The bill, referred to as 'Johnson's plan B' and supported by Speaker Mike Johnson, required a two-thirds majority but fell short with a vote of 174-235-1. A total of 38 Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the measure. Following the failed vote, the House went into recess. With no clear plan in place, Congress faces uncertainty on the eve of the shutdown deadline.
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Full budget passed • 25%
Temporary funding bill passed • 25%
Debt ceiling increase only • 25%
Shutdown continues into 2025 • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended without shutdown • 25%
Shutdown occurs but resolved before January 31 • 25%
Shutdown averted with new funding bill • 25%
Shutdown extends beyond January 31 • 25%
1-7 days • 25%
8-14 days • 25%
15-30 days • 25%
More than 30 days • 25%
