Market
What will be the outcome of the first federal election under Poilievre's leadership by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conservatives win majority • 25%
Conservatives win minority • 25%
Liberals win • 25%
Other party wins • 25%
Official election results from Elections Canada
Story
Pierre Poilievre, Conservative Party Leader, Has 92% Chance to Succeed Trudeau as Canadian PM
Jan 6, 2025, 04:14 PM
Following the resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister of Canada. According to market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, Poilievre has a 92% chance of assuming the role, with some sources indicating a high of 97%. The resignation of Trudeau, who has been in office for nearly a decade, marks a significant shift in Canadian politics, with Poilievre's conservative stance and opposition to policies associated with 'wokism' gaining traction among the electorate. Described as a Conservative firebrand, Poilievre's potential leadership is anticipated to focus on addressing the country's economic and cultural challenges, as highlighted by various commentators and polls.
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