Market
What will be the outcome of the competition for control over Banco BPM by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Crédit Agricole gains control • 25%
UniCredit gains control • 25%
Banco BPM remains independent • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Crédit Agricole, UniCredit, or Banco BPM, financial news reports
Story
Crédit Agricole Increases Banco BPM Stake to 15.1%, Complicating UniCredit's Bid
Dec 6, 2024, 07:10 PM
Crédit Agricole SA has increased its stake in Banco BPM to 15.1%, escalating the competition for control of the Italian bank. This move comes as UniCredit SpA faces a deadline until March to improve its bid for Banco BPM. Crédit Agricole has sought regulatory approval to boost its holding and has stated it will not launch a full takeover bid for Banco BPM at this time. The increase in stake by Crédit Agricole is seen as a strategic maneuver to strengthen its position in potential negotiations with UniCredit. The situation has intensified the ongoing banking consolidation in Italy, with shareholders of Banco BPM playing a pivotal role in deciding the bank's future.
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Other developments • 25%
Continued acquisition interest • 25%
No acquisition interest • 25%
Partnership or alliance • 25%
Acquisition blocked by CNMV • 25%
Acquisition completed • 25%
Acquisition abandoned by BBVA • 25%
Acquisition blocked by CNMC • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Stake reduction or divestment • 25%
Full takeover of Commerzbank • 25%
Partial merger or partnership • 25%
Modified • 25%
Accepted • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Increased stake to 30% without takeover • 25%
Reduced stake below 28% • 25%
Maintained stake at 28% • 25%
Launched a takeover bid • 25%
Change in CEO • 25%
Change in board composition • 25%
Major restructuring announced • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Stake increases to 29.9% • 25%
Stake decreases • 25%
Stake remains at 28% • 25%
Stake exceeds 29.9% • 25%
Not disclosed • 25%
Break-even • 25%
Loss-making investment • 25%
Profitable investment • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
