Market
What will be the outcome of the Brazilian court investigation into the Israeli soldier by December 31, 2025?
3
Brazilian•Israeli•Gaza•Brazil•Hind Rajab Foundation•HRF•Code of Criminal Procedure•Rome Statute•Dyab Abou Jahjah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Arrest warrant issued • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Trial initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court records or official announcements from the Brazilian judiciary
Story
Brazilian Court Investigates Israeli Soldier for Gaza War Crimes in Historic Rome Statute Case
Jan 4, 2025, 01:45 PM
A Brazilian federal court has initiated an investigation into an Israeli soldier accused of war crimes in Gaza. The soldier, currently in Brazil on vacation, is alleged to have participated in the demolition of civilian homes in Gaza, actions that may constitute genocide and crimes against humanity under international law. The Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), an organization advocating for justice and human rights, filed the complaint, presenting video, photographic, and geolocation evidence linking the suspect to the destruction of homes and neighborhoods. Families of victims have joined the case, seeking justice. The court has ordered urgent investigative measures under Brazil's Code of Criminal Procedure, marking a historic instance of a Rome Statute signatory enforcing its provisions domestically. HRF has called for the suspect's immediate arrest, citing risks of flight and evidence tampering. Dyab Abou Jahjah, HRF's chair, described the case as a "historic moment" and a "powerful precedent" for holding war criminals accountable.
View original story
Similar markets
Investigation concluded without charges • 25%
Charges filed • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Extradition • 25%
No Charges Filed • 25%
Charges Filed, No Conviction • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Extradition request to Israel • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Arrest warrant issued • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Charges filed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation dismissed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Arrested but not charged • 25%
Arrested and charged • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Not arrested, case dismissed • 25%
Resist international pressure • 25%
No official response • 25%
Cooperate fully with international bodies • 25%
Limited cooperation • 25%
Denies involvement • 25%
Blames external factors • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Admits responsibility • 25%
Ongoing trials • 25%
All convictions • 25%
Some convictions • 25%
All dismissed • 25%