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What will be the outcome of QatarEnergy's compliance with the EU directive by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full compliance, no fines • 25%
Partial compliance, reduced fines • 25%
Non-compliance, full fines • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Reports from EU regulatory bodies and QatarEnergy's official communications
Story
Qatar's Energy Minister Warns EU Gas Exports Will Stop if QatarEnergy Is Fined Under Due Diligence Law
Dec 22, 2024, 11:04 AM
Qatar has threatened to halt gas shipments to the European Union if EU member states strictly enforce new legislation imposing penalties on companies that fail to meet criteria on carbon emissions, human rights, and labor rights. Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's Energy Minister, told the Financial Times that Qatar is 'not bluffing' and would stop EU gas sales if fines under the corporate sustainability directive are imposed. The directive includes penalties of up to 5% of a company's global revenue for violations. The minister specifically mentioned that QatarEnergy could be affected by the due diligence law targeting forced labor and environmental damage. This development raises concerns over Europe's energy security, especially as the EU seeks to secure long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with Qatar to compensate for reduced Russian gas supplies.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiates new terms • 25%
Halts LNG shipments • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues shipments without change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in US LNG imports • 25%
Increase in Russian LNG imports • 25%
Increase in African LNG imports • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full Compliance • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Non-Compliance • 25%
Partial Compliance • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Norway • 25%
Middle East remains primary supplier • 25%
U.S. becomes primary supplier • 25%
No change in primary supplier • 25%
Russia remains primary supplier • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Law enforced with exemptions • 25%
Law postponed • 25%
Law repealed • 25%
Law enforced with penalties • 25%
Other • 25%
Norway • 25%
United States • 25%
Qatar • 25%