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What will be the outcome of protests within Iran related to Ehsani and Hassani by March 31, 2025?
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Behrouz Ehsani•Mehdi Hassani•Iran•Evin Prison•Ghezel Hesar Prison•Ehsani•Hassani•PMOI•Supreme Court•Amnesty International•European Parliament
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests result in increased repression • 25%
Protests continue without major impact • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Credible news reports and official statements from Iranian authorities
Story
Iranian Political Prisoners Behrouz Ehsani and Mehdi Hassani Face Imminent Execution After Transfer to Ghezel Hesar Prison
Jan 26, 2025, 05:15 PM
Behrouz Ehsani and Mehdi Hassani, two political prisoners in Iran, have been transferred from Evin Prison to Ghezel Hesar Prison, facing imminent execution. The transfer occurred on January 26, 2025, and has raised concerns about the potential enforcement of their death sentences. Ehsani, aged 70, and Hassani, aged 48, were convicted on charges related to their alleged membership in the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI). Their death sentences were upheld by Iran's Supreme Court three weeks prior to the transfer. Following the move, inmates at Evin Prison protested, chanting slogans against the regime. Amnesty International has appealed for the immediate cancellation of their death sentences, and the European Parliament has passed a resolution calling for the abolition of the death penalty in Iran.
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Protests lead to policy change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests continue without resolution • 25%
Protests suppressed without change • 25%
Other • 25%
Policy changes • 25%
Protests escalate • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Protests continue • 25%
Increased repression • 25%
Release of prisoners • 25%
Policy changes in Iran • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased international pressure on Iran • 25%
Escalation in protests • 25%
No official response • 25%
Commute sentences • 25%
Proceed with executions • 25%
Engage in negotiations • 25%
Protests • 25%
Public support statements • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Strong sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic condemnations only • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Both executed • 25%
Execution delayed • 25%
One executed, one pardoned • 25%
Both pardoned • 25%
Executed • 25%
Sentence commuted • 25%
Execution halted • 25%
Pardoned • 25%
No protests • 25%
Small protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
Large protests • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Minor protests • 25%
Other forms of public reaction • 25%
No protests • 25%
Large-scale protests • 25%