Market
What will be the outcome of FDA's nicotine reduction rule by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Implemented without changes • 25%
Implemented with modifications • 25%
Blocked by legal challenges • 25%
Withdrawn by FDA • 25%
Official FDA publications and legal outcomes
Story
FDA Advances 11th Hour Rule to Lower Cigarette Nicotine; Critics Warn of 'Gift to Cartels'
Jan 7, 2025, 09:07 PM
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is advancing an "11th hour proposal" in the final days of the Biden administration to lower nicotine levels in cigarettes, effectively banning most cigarettes currently on the market in favor of lower-nicotine alternatives. The proposal has reportedly cleared White House review and may be published before FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf leaves office. Supporters argue that reducing nicotine levels could significantly improve public health and save thousands of lives. However, critics, including former Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agents, warn that the move could fuel black-market operations and is a "gift to organized crime cartels."
View original story
Similar markets
Proposal finalized and implemented • 25%
Proposal withdrawn by FDA • 25%
Proposal finalized but not implemented • 25%
Proposal blocked by administration • 25%
Finalized with changes • 25%
Finalized without changes • 25%
No decision • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Significant reduction in smoking rates • 25%
Increase in smoking rates • 25%
No change in smoking rates • 25%
Moderate reduction in smoking rates • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other response • 25%
Compliance without challenge • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Lobbying against the rule • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Implemented as proposed • 25%
No decision • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Modified and implemented • 25%
Non-compliance without legal action • 25%
Compliance with legal action • 25%
Compliance without legal action • 25%
Non-compliance and legal action • 25%