Market
What will be the outcome of discussions between Brazil and Meta by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Meta reinstates fact-checking • 25%
Meta modifies policy • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Legal proceedings initiated • 25%
Official announcements from Brazilian government or Meta
Story
Brazil Gives Meta 72 Hours to Clarify Impact of Ending Fact-Checking, Lula and Macron Discuss Sovereignty
Jan 10, 2025, 02:27 PM
Brazil's government has given Meta, the company behind social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, 72 hours to explain the impact of its decision to end its fact-checking program in the country. This demand follows a meeting between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his ministers, where they discussed the implications of Meta's policy change. The Brazilian government, through the Attorney General's Office (AGU), is concerned about the potential increase in misinformation and its effects on national sovereignty, democracy, and citizens' fundamental rights. In response, the AGU will issue an extrajudicial notification to Meta, seeking clarity on how the company will address issues such as racism, homophobia, suicide prevention, and political violence on its platforms. Additionally, President Lula has engaged in discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, who also criticized Meta's decision. Both leaders emphasized the importance of continued cooperation between Brazil and Europe to combat the spread of fake news and protect national sovereignty.
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Satisfactory explanation • 25%
Unsatisfactory explanation • 25%
No response • 25%
Other • 25%
Request for further clarification • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Initiate legal proceedings • 25%
Meta does not respond within the timeframe • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Meta provides a satisfactory explanation • 25%
Meta provides an unsatisfactory explanation • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Legal actions initiated • 25%
No action • 25%
Legal action • 25%
Impose fines • 25%
Other • 25%
Meta's policy changes are blocked • 25%
Meta complies with Brazilian laws • 25%
No significant action is taken • 25%
Meta negotiates a compromise • 25%
Partial application of policies • 25%
Policies do not apply in Brazil • 25%
Policies apply in Brazil • 25%
No clarification provided • 25%
Fines imposed on Meta • 25%
Legal action against Meta • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Operational restrictions on Meta • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Legal action initiated • 25%
Legislative action proposed • 25%
Public condemnation only • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Regulatory action • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Introduces new moderation policies • 25%
No changes made • 25%
Reinstates fact-checking program • 25%