Market
What will be the NFIB Small-Business Optimism Index level at the end of Q1 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 95 • 25%
95 to 100 • 25%
100 to 105 • 25%
Above 105 • 25%
NFIB March 2025 report
Story
US NFIB Small-Business Optimism Index Soars 8 Points to 101.7, Highest Since 2021 After Trump Win
Dec 10, 2024, 11:00 AM
US small-business optimism surged in November to its highest level since June 2021, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) optimism index, which jumped 8 points—the largest increase on record—to 101.7, exceeding expectations of 94.2 and up from 93.7 in October. This significant increase reflects heightened expectations for more favorable economic policies following President-elect Donald Trump's election victory. The NFIB's report indicates that nine out of ten components of the index rose, with particularly strong improvements in sales expectations, while the Uncertainty Index decreased. Household optimism about personal finances also reached its highest point since early 2020, as reported by the New York Federal Reserve survey.
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75.0 to 79.9 • 25%
Below 70.0 • 25%
70.0 to 74.9 • 25%
80.0 or above • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Significant Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
75.0 to 79.9 • 25%
Below 70.0 • 25%
70.0 to 74.9 • 25%
80.0 or above • 25%
Fall below 125 • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase above 150 • 25%
Remain between 125 and 149 • 25%
Remain stable • 25%
Increase • 25%
Volatile fluctuations • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Fall below 150 • 25%
Recover to above 200 • 25%
Remain between 150 and 199 • 25%
Other • 25%
4.1% to 4.5% • 25%
3.5% to 4.0% • 25%
Below 3.5% • 25%
Above 4.0% • 25%
3.8% to 4.0% • 25%
3.5% to 3.7% • 25%
Above 4.5% • 25%
Low confidence • 25%
Moderate confidence • 25%
High confidence • 25%
Very low confidence • 25%
