Market
What will be the international response to Asif Rahman's case by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Condemn US actions • 25%
Support US actions • 25%
Neutral response • 25%
No official response • 25%
Statements from international governments or organizations
Story
Ex-CIA Analyst Asif Rahman Pleads Guilty to Leaking Israeli Attack Plans on Iran, Facing Up to 40 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 07:23 PM
Asif William Rahman, a 34-year-old former CIA analyst and Yale graduate, pleaded guilty on Friday in a U.S. District Court in Virginia to charges of willfully retaining and transmitting national defense information. Rahman, who worked at the U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, admitted to illegally downloading, printing, and transporting top-secret materials detailing Israel's preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran in October. The leaked information was posted on social media last year and led officials to delay the planned attack. Initially denying the charges, Rahman pleaded guilty to two counts of transmitting national defense information, each carrying a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. He had been employed at the CIA since 2016. Sentencing is scheduled for May 15.
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No significant response • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic pressure • 25%
New trial ordered • 25%
Sentence upheld • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Sentence reduced • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
No reaction • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Less than 5 years • 25%
More than 10 years • 25%
5 to 10 years • 25%
Minimal reaction • 25%
Other • 25%
Moderate condemnation • 25%
Strong condemnation and action • 25%
UN intervenes • 25%
No major international intervention • 25%
Both UN and Amnesty International intervene • 25%
Amnesty International issues a report • 25%
Diplomatic pressure • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased support for Salehi • 25%
Sanctions against Iran • 25%